Friday Foreplay

Friday Foreplay – Gameweek 11

Gummi Fantasy Football Tips, Gameweek Previews 4 Comments

Down around the corner
A half a mile from here
You see them old players runnin’
And you watch them disappear
Without FPL
Where would you be now
Without FPL

Indeed, where would you be? Most likely sobbing in a corner, shaking uncontrollably from Fantasy Premier League withdrawal. So we gotta keep on pushin’ Mama and churn the pistons to the Gameweek 11 preview and its captain picks, heavy hitters, clean sheets, punts, and the big ol’ rumbling gut.

Captain Picks

Gameweek 11 sees Manchester United face a hapless Crystal Palace side that have conceded two or more goals in all but two games this season. And those two games were at home against Burnley and Leicester. Ángel Di María should wreak havoc on the Palace defence and has a fantastic chance to get into double-digit Fantasy land. He’s also a fine purchase at this time with three home games in the next four fixtures.

Despite having a quiet few weeks, Di María’s numbers have held up which can be seen by comparing the underlying statistics with current golden boy, Alexis Sanchez. In the last four games Sanchez edges out in goal threat — the Chilean has 18 goal attempts versus Di María’s 17, 11 on target versus seven, and 10 inside the box versus 5 — but Di María has the edge in assist potential — he’s provided 15 key passes versus Sanchez’s nine, three big chances created versus one, 19 successful crosses versus two, and both have five through balls.

Considering Di María’s last two opponents, Chelsea and Manchester City, and the numbers point to a big Fantasy return for the Argentinian soon. Perhaps against Neil Warnock’s men.

Yet again Sergio “Kun” Agüero was the difference as his goal was the decider in last week’s Manchester derby. He leads the league in goal attempts (49), shots in the box (40), and shots on target (26), with only Frank Lampard edging him out in minutes per goal (68.5 vs 70.2). In short, he’s a certified Fantasy beast. If you wanted to pick one player to put your armband on and leave it there for the rest of the season, Kun is your man (ignoring his injury record). Home and away, he’s a fine captain pick.

Graziano Pellè, a trusted member of the Official ATFPL team, is facing a Leicester City side with four losses in their last five fixtures. On eight goals already for Southampton, he’s been a wonderful differential pick for those Fantasy managers smart enough to get him in early. The question now becomes whether he’ll maintain his form through some of the upcoming tricky fixtures. For now though, he’s a great bet.

Heavy Hitters

Stoosher’s What We Learned noted Manchester United’s positive approach and Wayne Rooney’s fine performance against Manchester City. With the talent at his disposal, Louis van Gaal is likely to get United clicking, at least on the attacking front, and Rooney is a integral to the Dutchman’s plans. Given his proven Fantasy pedigree and three goals and two assists already this season, he’s a fine pick up front.

Despite last Gameweek’s disappointing game, Diego Costa is still on ATFPL’s radar, even with a tricky game at Anfield. It just shows he’s human, finally failing to deliver in a home game. He’ll likely continue scoring soon and deserves to be considered a Fantasy favourite until proven otherwise.

Alexis Sánchez tops ATFPL’s Watchlist and would be in the mix for the armband if not for a tricky fixture away to Swansea who have the second least goals conceded at home this season. Nevertheless, if Arsenal are to score he’s the likeliest candidate, as Tommy’s Weekend Numbers highlighted.

West Ham’s form and upcoming fixtures, a home game against a struggling Aston Villa, and an impressive amount of goal attempts this season (on par with Southampton) combine to make Diafra Sakho a great budget striker pick for this Gameweek and beyond. For 5.8 million, you can’t go wrong with a striker with fine underlying numbers that has delivered Fantasy points in every game he’s started this season and scored in his last five fixtures.

Punts

In addition to Sakho, two West Ham players are worth mentioning, as both Enner Valencia and Stewart Downing look to be long-term Fantasy assets. Valencia is on three goals and three assists this season, backed up by similar underlying numbers as Sakho. Downing gets Matej’s approval in this Gameweek’s Opinion article where he notes his position in the midfielder top ten for both shots inside the box and shots on target and second in chances created.

Speaking of chances created, Southampton’s Dušan Tadić is tied with Downing in second on 28 key passes behind only Cesc Fàbregas on 31. The Serbian midfielder continues to be a fine pick but needs to start converting chances and having key passes lead to goals on a more consistent basis to justify his 10.6% ownership.

Robin van Persie is owned by only 2.0% of Fantasy managers, a shockingly low, if understandable, figure considering his 68 league goals in the last three seasons. The Dutch striker has been slow out of the blocks but Arvin-Ation reckons he’s starting to hit his stride, as noted in this Gameweek’s Differentials. He’s found space in the area in the last four Gameweeks, managing 12 shots in the box and should continue to get them with United creating more big chances in their last two games against Chelsea and Manchester City than they averaged under David Moyes last season.

Clean Sheets

The ATFPL Clean Sheet Consortium likes the look of…

Toby Alderweireld who’s been a fantastic loan signing for Ronald Koeman’s Southampton.

…Burnley’s Michael Duff who faces a Hull City team with an average of less than a goal an away game last season, as noted in this Gameweek’s Undesirables.

…West Brom’s Ben Foster whose 10 point Gameweek, including three points bonus points, put him to a total of 35 points and made him the best performing 4.5 million priced goalkeeper in the game.

Big ol’ Rumbling Gut Pick

Arsenal’s Theo Walcott could be a tasty Fantasy bite and a handy differential. This gut pick isn’t just a feeling, as Walcott has a credible Fantasy history and showed how dangerous he can be with a key pass and goal attempt in only nine minutes of action last Gameweek. Put short, ATFPL’s gut rumbles for the England international.


About the contributor

Gummi

Twitter

Really trusts Tommy.

How much does he factor in form?
18%
How much does he factor in fixtures?
80%
How much does he follow his gut?
16%
How much does he follow statistics?
90%

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