Captain Foresight is a weekly captaincy article that looks at the underlying statistics of the top three picks in our weekly captain poll. It is where we offer you the statistical backing behind YOUR choices – you vote, we analyse. Read on as we discuss the merits of each providing gameweek 32 captain tips along with declaring our Risk V Reward pick.
Selected Players – Last Four Gameweeks
First off we highlight the players’ selected key numbers from the last four gameweeks.
MP = Minutes Played, GA = Goal Attempts, SoT = Shots on Target, SiB = Shots inside Box, KP = Key Passes.
Opposition Defence – Last Four Gameweeks
Next we take a look at the opposition’s defensive stats for the last four gameweeks.
|Opposition (Player)||G Con||GA Con||GA Con In||BC Con|
|Aston Villa (Kane)||1.60||11.00||7.00||1.80|
G Con = Goals Conceded, GA Con = Goal Attempts Conceded, GA Con In = Goals Attempts Conceded in the Box, BC Con = Big Chances Conceded
Home v. Away Comparison
Last, we compare the numbers for each player and the opposition’s defence over the season based on whether the fixture is home or away.
|Player Statistics||Opposition Statistics|
|Player (Opp)||PPG||GA||SiB||SoT||KP||G Con||GA Con||GA Con In||BC Con|
With a chance every 22 minutes at White Hart Lane finding the back of net every 112 minutes when Harry Kane has a home fixture, inevitably Fantasy managers are going to be drawn to the charms of HurriKane with the captaincy poll a landslide. However and as the Captain Foresight Scores suggests picking the right captain this week is no mean feat. In the favour of Kane is his overall home points per game and goal threat statistics combined with Villa conceding the most per game from the three opponents selected. That said Villa’s recent defensive form shows improvements in goal attempts conceded, goal attempts inside the box conceded and as a result goals conceded in the last four weeks possibly negating their overall stats and then there’s the Tim Sherwood factor to consider. Is it a positive or negative? All in all then while it would be a surprise to not see Kane’s name on the score sheet this weekend – he has returned two point or less in 6 of 11 home appearances when starting but seven points or more in 4 of his last 8 -, a big captaincy haul seems ultimately down to whether Aston Villa’s improvements under the former Spurs man are legitimate or not and how motivated they will be sent out onto the field to prove their manager’s worth to his former employers.
Captain Foresight Score: 26.23
With seven points or more in six of his last seven away appearances unlike Harry Kane above consistency is certainly in the favour of Eden Hazard making the Chelsea man a far more risk free captaincy selection. Add the opponents QPR who top the study for goal conceded in the last four gameweeks (2.20), allow the most goal attempts inside their box and in total when looking at the home/away comparison while keeping just 4 clean sheets in 16 home encounters and opportunity looks rife for Hazard to make it seven in eight. The sticking point, Hazard averages just 0.60 shots on target per away game but an argument can be contrived that this is a case of quality over quantity with the Belgian finding the net five times from nine accurate attempts.
Captain Foresight Score: 26.24
So we finally get to the form man of the Premier League! Averaging 9.75 points per game in the last four gameweeks – 2 or more appearances -, it’s not hard to see why when looking at Olivier Giroud’s recent statistics that sees the Frenchman topping all goal threat categories while 2.50 key passes per game is the most from any forward. Add equally impressive away numbers that ultimately has Giroud almost matching Kane in points per game – 6.11 compared with 6.29 – despite the locations of each and the only sticking point and the reason why his Captain Foresight Score is last of the three analysed is Burnley’s defensive record. Keeping recent home clean sheets against Manchester City and Spurs, the Clarets in short don’t offer up many big chances to their opponents which has equated to conceding just 1.19 goals per home game. But can they keep Arsenal at arms distance who themselves have scored two or more in 10 of 16 away trips failing to score against just Chelsea and Southampton, the two best home defences in the Premier League this season?
Captain Foresight Score: 25.76
Risk v. Reward
Raheem Sterling may be in the news for all the wrong reasons but with Liverpool entertaining a Newcastle United side ranking last on the form guide with just one win in six conceding nine goals in their last three away games, opportunity is rife for the winger to deliver in gameweek 32. Add that Sterling is involved in five goal attempts per home game evenly distributed between shots (2.53) and key passes (2.47) and while there is plenty of risk involved backing a team that has suffered demoralising back to back defeats, Sterling could prove some doubters wrong.