fantasy football tips

2014/15 Performance? – Captain Foresight

In Tommy We Trust Captain Foresight, Fantasy Football Tips

The season is up and most fantasy managers are enjoying toasting their successes but here at All Things FPL we’ve been busy conducting an internal review, establishing whether our own performance over the 2014/15 season met the high standards set. And one area where it’s possible for us to analyse is Captain Foresight using the captain foresight score as the barometer. Read on as we give you the facts to come to your own conclusions on the successes or failings of our flagship article;

Behind Captain Foresight

First up we should just take a little timeout to explain what is Captain Foresight?

In short it’s our captaincy article that allows the community to select three players to be reviewed ahead of any gameweek using the captain poll. During the review we take a look at three main areas of interest. Form – the players’ last four gameweeks performance -, the opposition form – performance level of the opposition over the same duration of the players in question – and finally the overall performances of both based on the location the potential captain will be played. So if Alexis Sanchez was plying his trade at the Emirates Stadium against Burnley we would take a closer look at the Chilean’s home statistics along with Burnley’s away numbers in what hopefully collectively provides fantasy managers with the most well rounded analysis ahead of the key decision of the gameweek.

During the season we added to this analysis by providing a captain foresight score “CFS” for fantasy managers that required a simple check that gave a consistent number as to a predictive outcome of the events ahead. And it’s this consistency that we can utilise to provide our own analysis on the performance of Captain Foresight. We can do this by looking back at the players performances that entered the gameweek with the highest score working with their points tallies and while this approach does limit any opinion cast within the articles themselves, the level playing field provided does give us confidence in our findings.

The Findings

The Captain Foresight Score has been running from Gameweek ten so below you will find the key highlight numbers from this point in the season to take from the investigation;

  • Number of Gameweeks CFS has been used – 29
  • Total points if a manager followed Captain Foresight during this period – 412
  • Gameweek Average – 14.21
  • Extrapolated Season Total – 539.9

But what does the above mean? If we take a typical gameweek where you have 11 players on the field with captaincy points doubled, the initial standpoint that 2/12 or 12.5% of a squad total points should come from its captain. In fact because a fantasy manager has the freedom to change their captaincy this number is doubled to 25% of a squads overall score with this method a generally excepted tool of analysing a squad captaincy performance. Now knowing this we can give you guys the numbers that count;

  • Overall Rank of a squad based on CFS – 19,769
  • % Position of that squad in FPL – Top 0.56%

Of course there are external influences at work here. Firstly the choice of players selected may have hurt the rank which is out of our control, the 25% theory is just that, a theory and any slight variance either side would have a profound affect on the rankings but without providing too much evidence to ignore the findings we are confident in the output produced. The claim that if a Fantasy manager followed just the CFS element of this article and performed equally as well with the rest of their squad, they would have finished comfortably inside the top 1% of the whole game is a fantastic result.

Like we said originally though this article isn’t meant to be “a shout about ourselves” publication but more here’s the data for you guys to come to your own findings on the article’s performance so we’ll leave you with a few other numbers of interest;

  • The Top 10,000 managers’ highest selected gameweek captains in the same period scored a combined total of 376 points compared to Captain Foresight’s 412. Stat courtesy of FPL Discovery.
  • CFS selected a player who scored 4 points or less 9 times. Twice it was affected by injury
  • However only three of these failed gameweeks happened this calendar year (Gameweek 20)
  • With CFS currently on a 9 gameweek run selecting a captain to score 10 points or more
  • The longest run of failed captains was two gameweeks. This run was achieved twice
  • The CFS selected player scored 30 points or more 17.2% of the time
  • The CFS selected player scored 20 points or more 24.1% of the time
  • The CFS selected player scored 10 points or more 62.1% of the time
  • CFS selected Sergio Aguero 27.6% of the time
  • CFS highlighted Andy Carroll in gameweek 22 who beat the top 10K selected Harry Kane
  • But in gameweek 23 CFS selected Graziano Pelle who failed while the top 10,000 managers highest selected player Olivier Giroud didn’t

Thank you for taking the time to read the analysis. We hope the findings help you next season as we all look to ace the most important decision of any gameweek – Captaincy!


About the contributor

In Tommy We Trust

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Statistics are only as good as the man who manipulated them so the question is do you trust Tommy?

How much does he factor in form?
45%
How much does he factor in fixtures?
82%
How much does he follow his gut?
65%
How much does he follow statistics?
100%

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