The forthcoming season is going to be one of the hardest in recent years to predict who will be relegated. The 2022-23 season saw all three promoted sides survive the drop, but the bookmakers do not think that will happen again and have already made it quite clear who they believe will go down to the Championship.
Let’s take a look at the favourites for the drop and assess the odds:
Luton Town (4/11)
Less than ten years ago Luton Town were playing in the fifth tier of English football. In an astronomical rise, they are now ready to compete in the top flight for the first time since 1992.
Despite this true fairy tale sporting story, the odds suggest that Luton are favourites to go straight back down to the second tier. The club’s lack of top-flight experience could cost them this season, given their manager Rob Edwards – for example – was managing in League 2 just over a year ago. However, the Hatters could still be a surprise package next season and should not be underestimated.
Sheffield United (8/11)
It has taken the Blades two seasons, but they return to the Premier League this year under manager Paul Heckingbottom. They were promoted automatically by finishing in second place, avoiding the dreaded playoffs. But there are clear reasons why they are one of the favourites to go down next season.
They have only made one summer signing so far and that is Anis Slimane from Danish side Brondby. He is certainly not Premier League proven, only breaking into the Brondby first team in 2020. United might also lose star man Iliman Ndiaye, who scored 14 league goals last season.
In addition to the lack of transfer activity, Heckingbottom lacks experience managing at the top level, only taking charge of 10 Premier League games when he was caretaker gaffer in the 2020-21 season.
Bournemouth (2/1)
After the start the Cherries had last season, it seemed a dead cert they would get relegated. But the work of manager Gary O’Neil, after he took over from Scott Parker last August, saw the team stay in Premier League finishing in an impressive 15th place.
For the new campaign, the club have changed direction again with the appointment of young Spanish manager Andoni Iraola from Rayo Vallecano. The running theme with all the teams mentioned so far is that they lack a manager with significant Premier League experience.
But Bournemouth, with their recent takeover, do have money to spend – which could help their case for another season of survival.
Burnley and Nottingham Forest (5/2)
With the same odds to go down, both Burnley and Forest look like they might be the teams to just avoid the drop. Vincent Kompany lifted Burnley back to the Premier League at the first time of asking after securing the Championship title. Steve Cooper and Forest had a slightly different season where they were battling relegation but eventually did so successfully with the 30 new players they brought in.
From the football played by Burnley last season, it is a completely different team to what was seen when they were last in the Premier League. So, this new expansive style of play could see them shock a lot of teams next season and see Kompany’s side survive.
For Forest and Cooper, their home record was very strong, picking up 30 points from a possible 57 at the City Ground. If they can replicate that kind of form, it is hard to see Forest going down next season.
